Subject: Myanmar Coup Updates for May 7

A return to the "bad old days" as Tatmadaw steps up hostage-taking; opposition hardens and targets military personnel and infrastructure; Kachin allege use of chemical weapons as heavy fighting continues in Kachin and Northern Shan; GAD back under Ministry of Home Affairs; NUG lays out civilian oversight of military; ASSK lawyers denied access to hearing; Tatmadaw will not cooperate with ASEAN until there is stability; businesses hit hard by the coup; Indian-Myanmar border closed at Mizoram; Rohingya resorting to "more extreme coping strategies" as Bangladesh Foreign Minister brings false hope of third country resettlement

• A return to the "bad old days" as opposition emboldened: With hundreds killed, arbitrary detentions rife, informants and checkpoints everywhere, and the Tatmadaw's propaganda war in full force, Myanmar is returning to the bad old days of rule by fear from military dictatorship before its partial opening over the last decade. Among a litany of disturbing tactics, the military seems to be increasingly holding family members hostage, including the wife and three week-old baby of a protest leader in Mon State, if their intended targets cannot be found. The Assistance Association for Political Prisoners counts at least 59 cases of hostage-taking. Nonetheless, protests continue across Myanmar - held in Hpakant (Kachin), Kalay and Ye-U (Sagaing), Muse (Shan), Dawei  (Tanintharyi) Mandalay,  Yangon, and elsewhere in recent days - and the opposition to the coup is hardening and increasingly targeting the military and government institutions with violence.
• Junta administrators and infrastructure targeted: Three junta-appointed administrators were killed over the past several days, likely targeted by opposition forces for their collaboration with the junta. Local administration buildings have also been targeted with numerous bombs and explosions. And continuing a spate of explosions targeting government officials and infrastructure, a military truck hit an explosive in Kani (Sagaing), where clashes between the civilian resistance and the Tatmadaw killed at least 16 soldiers this week. And on Friday, an explosion outside of an alleged informant's house led to a raid in which the military killed a 15 year-old and detained his grandfather. Several have recently been killed in what state media says is "accidental explosions of homemade bombs"; while there is a probably an element of truth to this, it is also a convenient excuse for a military that has ruthlessly targeted opponents. 
• Education protests continue as junta fires teachers:Frontier has a good feature on the education protests: "despite the importance of children’s education, much of the teaching profession and the wider public are determined to deny the junta a single policy win – and to foil any pretence, after weeks of protest and deadly repression, that Myanmar is now stable. They also feel that, given the neglect and incompetence that marked the previous era of military rule, a junta-run education system would be worthless, and so they have nothing to lose." And while universities reopened on Wednesday, the junta has been firing teachers and professors en masse - perhaps as many as 4,000 education staff in total - which is likely to complicate the efficacy of the reopening effort.
• Heavy fighting in Kachin and Northern Shan, as Kachin allege use of chemical weapons: Kachin groups are alleging the use of chemical weapons in air raids over the past several days, leading to severe burns and causing victims' skin to peel; as recently as 2019, the US believed that Maynmar may have had a chemical weapons stockpile. In heavy fighting in Kutkai, Northern Shan on May 4 and 5, the Northern Alliance claims to have killed 30 Tatmadaw troops in fighting meant both to defend themselves and to help the Kachin Independence Army, which has been engaged in heavy fighting with the Tatmadaw in Kachin and Northern Shan States. In Kachin, some 30 Tatmadaw troops were reported killed from a friendly fire incident in Momauk, with heavy fighting also reported between the Kachin Independence Army and the Tatmadaw in Mohnyin and Shwegu. From the perspective of a civil society activist in northern Myanmar, ethnic armed organizations are keeping the Tatmadaw in check and preventing a more forceful response, saying: "If the Tatmadaw shoots the people, they know the EAOs could easily go through the forest and burn down their bases." 
• KNLA overtakes another Tatmadaw base: The Karen National Liberation Army (KNLA) overtook another Tatmadaw base on Friday, with video showing the abandoned base set on fire and weapons left behind. There are reports that the Tatmadaw carried out airstrikes in response.
• Ethnic Health Committee calls for increased support: The so-called Ethnic Health Committee called for direct international support to ethnic health organizations and for Myanmar's neighbors to provide COVID vaccines through ethnic-controlled areas.
• AA sets up parallel government structures in Rakhine: Taking advantage of a lull in fighting since the elections, the Arakan Army (AA) are advancing objectives to establish parallel governing structures in Rakhine, having set up "Arakan People's Authorities" to deal with public administration and crime and plans to expand to address health, education, humanitarian assistance, agriculture and forestry; the AA is also collecting taxes, with some in Rakhine preferring to pay tax to the AA instead of central government authorities. Separately, three suspected members of the Arakan Army were arrested in Bangladesh on Thursday.
• General Administration Department moved back under Home Affairs: One of the NLD's biggest policy victories over the military was moving the backbone of the government at the village, township, and state level, the General Administration Department, out from under the Ministry of Home Affairs. That has now been reversed and the GAD is back under Home Affairs.
• NUG lays out plans for civilian oversight of military: As a part of efforts to place the Myanmar military under civilian control, the NUG's newly-established Ministry of Defense has called for the military's budget to be approved by parliament and for the Union and Deputy Ministers of Defense to be civilians.
• ASSK's legal woes (and her lawyers legal woes):Lawyers denied even virtual access to ASSK court hearing: ASSK appeared in court again on Thursday. Not only has she still been unable to meet with her lawyers privately, but they were barred from a video link of court proceedings; a judge will decide if an in-person meeting can take place at ASSK's next hearing on May 20. Relatedly, two of ASSK's legal team are in hiding, apparently for offering legal services to the opposition to the coup.
• In other prominent political prisoner news: NLD leader Win Htein will face trial for sedition on May 14, during which he may be able to meet with his lawyers for the first time. 88 Generation leader and once-again  political prisoner Mya Aye has been charged with incitement apparently, according to his daughter, for something he wrote in 2014 about working towards federalism.
• Myanmar Now reported placed in solitary confinement, more journalists targeted: Arrested in late February for incitement, a Myanmar Now reporter was placed in solitary confinement; she was perceived as going on a hunger strike though she was just fasting for Ramadan. According to the UN Human Rights Office, the Tatmadaw has issued 21 arrest warrants for journalists just in the past week. Many journalists have fled or are in hiding; popular journalist Mratt Kyaw Thu has fled from Myanmar and is seeking asylum in Germany.
• International response
• Tatmadaw will not cooperate with ASEAN until stability restored: Reiterating its position in the immediate aftermath of the ASEAN summit on April 24, the Tatmadaw said today that it will not cooperate with an ASEAN envoy until they "achieve a certain level of security and stability." Demonstrating just how much ASEAN is about finding the least common denominator, former Singaporean diplomat Bilahari Kausikan praises the five point consensus arguing that ASEAN should seek to curtail violence a bit and secure the release of " some of the less significant prisoners" because "diplomacy is about doing what is practical." Kausikan also says that Brunei, as ASEAN Chair, is likely to try to visit Myanmar after Ramadan, though it is unlikely "a certain level of security and stability" will be achieved by then, so the Tatmadaw may not agree to the visit.
• China (and Japan) defer to ASEAN on Myanmar: China and, to a lesser extent, Japan seem to be happy to move forward with the least common denominator approach (though Japan did sign on to a relatively strong G7 statement earlier this week). As it takes over the rotating presidency of the UN Security Council for May, China has no plans to discuss Myanmar at the Council, instead indicating that "the Council is mainly emphasizing or supporting the diplomatic efforts of Asean countries and to support Asean to play a constructive role in this regard." Separately, six former UN special representatives of the UN Secretary-General, all from Japan, call for Japan to play a more robust diplomatic role, albeit one that operates largely within the confines of ASEAN centrality. Meanwhile, ASEAN continues to give junta appointees a seat at the table at ASEAN events: the military-appointed Deputy Attorney General attended ASEAN Senior Law Officials Meeting by videoconference on Thursday.
• For business, two months of coup worse than one year of pandemic: A business survey of nearly 400 companies led by 10 foreign chambers of commerce determined that the coup “had a stronger negative impact on companies after only two months, than a whole year of pandemic." Though the explanation of the survey findings could be more clear, the impact on business activity, income, employment are significant as are expectations of future activity and investment; 13% of businesses, for example, have ceased all activities since the coup, with the biggest obstacles to business being the collapse of the banking system and the internet shutdown. Japanese conglomerate Marubeni says it is "deeply concerned" about the situation in Myanmar and has halted the feasibility studies of two power projects, but continues to operate the Thilawa industrial park.
• India-Myanmar border closed at Mizoram:Even as Myanmar refugees find relative safety in India's Northeast, many wish they had continued protesting in Myanmar. While several thousands Myanmar citizens are believed to have crossed into India since the coup, that may soon become more difficult: the Myanmar-India border at Mizoram was closed, apparently due to COVID-related concerns.
• False hope for Rohingya as Bangladesh FM touts third country resettlement: In a meeting with the US Ambassador to Bangladesh, Bangladesh's Foreign Minister called on the US to consider accepting a "good number" of Rohingya. In the past, a "good number" has meant hundreds of thousands, a number that remains unrealistic. And while the change in tone from the Foreign Minister might open space for future negotiation, it also raises false hope among Rohingya in the camps. In the best case scenarios, US refugee resettlement programs take several years. However, with the Biden Administration lifting its refugee cap, the US is well-placed to lead coordination among other countries to put together a package that might appeal to Bangladesh (and perhaps enable an improvement of conditions in Cox's Bazar).
• Rohingya resorting to "more extreme coping strategies": A needs assessment conducted by the UN in Bangladesh shows that an "increasing proportion of households adopted crisis-level coping strategies" while also reducing assets and savings, with "negative repercussions on health, food security and nutrition as well as household exposure to extreme protection risks." Humanitarian assistance and services have been severely disrupted by COVID-related restrictions. 
• Joint Response Plan launch in Geneva on May 18: The 2021 Joint Response Plan (JRP), over which negotiations have been tense, is expected to launch in Geneva on May 18. Bangladeshi officials have driven a hard line in negotiations, so this year's JRP is likely to offer more limited details than previous plans. Among key negotiating points for Bangladesh is a desire for international funding for humanitarian assistance to Rohingya relocated to Bhasan Char.

Steve Ross

Senior Advisor and Program Director
Richardson Center for Global Engagement